Having a clear and compelling point of view isn’t optional in the complex environment — it’s what we call leadership.
Whether you’re speaking to investors, clients, or partners, clarity builds trust. So when I’m asked, “What do you think about the U.S. real estate market right now?” — I don’t hedge.
Here’s my view, built from experience, shaped by data, and grounded in real operational results.
A Market in Transition
We’re in a noisy market — but not a broken one.
Residential real estate is becoming more localized and less predictable from a national perspective. Commercial real estate, especially office, is undergoing a generational reset.
But neither of these trends signals collapse — they signal revaluation, reallocation, and, for those with a disciplined approach, real opportunity.
At the heart of this market is a simple truth: clarity rewards conviction. The investors who win will be the ones who stay focused, underwrite conservatively, and operate efficiently.
Focusing on North Austin
A mentor of mine once told me:
“You can find a deal anywhere — but only if you truly understand the ground you’re standing on.”
That’s why our acquisition strategy is focused tightly on North Austin, and why we’re narrowing our search aperture even further.
We believe in going deep, not wide.
Here’s why:
1. Hyper-Local Knowledge Creates Speed and Confidence
When you know the schools, employers, rent comps, traffic flows, and local politics, you’re not guessing. You’re making informed, fast decisions — and that’s how deals get done.
In North Austin, we already have that embedded knowledge. We’ve mapped the market, tracked historical trends, and built relationships with brokers and local lenders. That gives us a real edge.
2. Strong Fundamentals Anchor the Market
North Austin remains one of the most resilient submarkets in the country, with:
- Job Anchors: Apple, Dell, Samsung, Amazon, and multiple logistics/distribution centers.
- Steady In-Migration: Working professionals and families continue to relocate here.
- Healthy Demand for Rentals: Especially in the Class B/C segment, where affordability still matters.
Even as rent growth normalizes and interest rates rise, tenant demand in this corridor hasn’t collapsed — it’s just recalibrated.
What the Numbers Say
The national narrative says, “Austin is overbuilt.”
That’s only half true. Yes, there’s softness in luxury Class A towers downtown — but that’s not where we play. We’re focused on 1980s–2000s vintage assets in proven neighborhoods.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
- Cap rates have expanded ~50–100 basis points across the board.
- Valuations per door have come down from $175K–$200K to closer to $140K–$160K, creating room for value-add or light rehab deals.
- Financing is tougher, which is thinning the buyer pool. But that also gives us leverage in negotiations and deal terms.
This is a moment where cautious underwriting and operational strength matter more than ever.
Lessons From Experience
At Invitation Homes, we built a model that thrived on consistency:
- >90% occupancy
- >$2,000/month rents
- >60% NOI margins
That taught me that real estate isn’t won on IRR projections — it’s won in the day-to-day blocking and tackling.
At Amherst Residential, I helped lead FP&A for a 30,000+ home portfolio.
There, I learned that the best operators aren’t the most aggressive — they’re the most disciplined. They build systems that scale, and they don’t stretch for deals.
Now, advising and investing in smaller multifamily operators, I apply the same principles: tight underwriting, a defined buy box, and a local edge.
What We’re Targeting
- Location: North Austin only (e.g., Wells Branch, Tech Ridge, North Burnet)
- Unit Count: 20–100 units
- Vintage: 1980–2005
- Strategy: Light value-add, operational efficiency, long-term hold or mid-term reposition
- Target Returns: 6–8% cash-on-cash with upside, 14–16% levered IRR
Why Focus Wins
In a market this uncertain, I’d rather be a specialist than a generalist. You can chase deals across the country — or you can dominate a zip code.
By focusing on North Austin, we’re not just betting on a submarket. We’re betting on local knowledge, execution discipline, and operational strength.
That’s our edge — and in this cycle, that’s what will win.
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